With the 2006 Congressional elections just four weeks away, the battle for control of Congress is heating up. With the Foley scandal adding to the unpopularity of the Republican Congress, the prospect of holding Republican losses to a minimum is looking bleaker each day. Most political pundits contend that Democrats have a good chance of gaining the fifteen seats they need to control the House of Representatives, but that gaining control of the US Senate is less likely. The Democrats need to gain a net of six seats for control of the Senate. Of the 33 Senate seats that are up in this election cycle, only nine appear at this time to be close races. This means that Democrats must win eight out of nine, or 89%, of the close races to win control, since two of the nine are currently seats held by the Democrats. While this appeared to be a long shot two months ago, the possibility of a change in Senate control appears greater now, as Democrats are running surprisingly strong campaigns in several Republican-leaning states this year. My analyses of these races are based on the analyses of Congressional Quarterly and the Cook Political Report, as well as my own research on these races.
Maryland
This race should be safe for Democrats, as Kerry beat President Bush in Maryland by 13%. However, a divisive Democratic primary and the possibility of African Americans defecting in large numbers to the Republican nominee puts this seat into play. Congressman Ben Cardin, a white Democrat, narrowly defeated former NAACP President Mfume in the Democratic primary last month and now faces Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in November. While Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, Steele has a chance to become the only black Republican in the Senate if he can gain a sizeable portion of the large African American vote. With many black Democrats disappointed by Mfume’s primary loss, this seems like a genuine possibility. Current polling has Cardin up by about 10%, but this race could be a surprise on election night.
Rating: Leans Democratic.
Missouri
Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent faces former State Auditor Claire McCaskill. In recent years, Missouri has been kind to Republicans, with President Bush beating Senator Kerry by 7% in 2004. The current political climate, however, makes this race extremely close. Senator Talent is an attractive rising star in the GOP Senate caucus who lost a tough race for Governor in 2000 by 20,000 votes. He then came back and won by 20,000 votes two years later in a special election for the Senate over Jean Carnahan, who had taken her late husband’s Senate seat after he posthumously defeated Senator John Ashcroft in 2000. This race, which polls indicate is statistically even, is a bellwether race for control of the US Senate. This is one race that Democrats must win in order to control the Senate.
Rating: No clear favorite.
Montana
What should have been a safe seat for Republican Senator Conrad Burns has become a hotly contested race. Montana, a state that went for President Bush by 20% in 2004, already has one Democratic senator, and unless Senator Burns can turn things around, is heading for two. Montana Senate President Jon Tester, a liberal Democrat, is running a strong campaign against Burns. What makes this race so close, however, is not anything Tester has done, but rather the terrible race the 71-year-old Burns has run. Burns has made major campaign gaffes, criticizing the performance of firefighters and calling Muslims “hanky heads.” Because of the Republican tilt of this state Burns cannot be counted out, and he has strong support in agricultural Eastern Montana, but the most recent polls have Tester up by about 6%.
Rating: Leans Democratic.
New Jersey
Republicans are very fortunate that this seat is in play. Senator Bob Menendez, who was appointed by Governor Jon Corzine to the Senate at the beginning of this year, faces State Senator Tom Kean Jr., son of a very popular former Governor. New Jersey is a Democratic-leaning state, which President Bush lost to Kerry by 7% in 2004, and in which Bush is currently quite unpopular. The Kean name, however, combined with Menendez’s ethical problems puts this seat into play. Menendez has benefited financially from government contracts he obtained for non-profit organizations that rented property from him. Such news reports have put Menendez on the defensive. Although Menendez is up by about 3% in the most recent polls, Kean has not yet begun an intensive media campaign. The Kean campaign has accumulated sufficient funds to be able to go dollar for dollar with Menendez in the expensive Philadelphia and New York media markets during the last three weeks of the campaign. Menendez has been blanketing the airwaves for several weeks with little response from the Kean campaign, and is nevertheless only 3% ahead in the polls. If Republicans pick up this seat, it would be very difficult for the Democrats to take control of the Senate.
Rating: No clear favorite.
Ohio
Two-term Republican Senator Mike DeWine is in the fight of his political life. In Ohio, Republicans are especially unpopular because of corruption in the state administration of Governor Bob Taft, and an overall dissatisfaction with the economic performance of the state, which has an above-average unemployment rate. Labor unions are strong in Ohio, and are going all out to get out the vote for Congressman Sherrod Brown, DeWine’s well-funded opponent. Congressman Brown is an avid supporter of organized labor and is running a strong campaign against DeWine. Polls show this race to be very close, with Brown up by about 3%, but DeWine has a history of winning tough elections in Ohio.
Rating: No clear favorite.
Pennsylvania
Two-term Senator Rick Santorum is in serious political trouble this year. State Treasurer Bob Casey, son of a popular former Governor of Pennsylvania, is a pro-life Democrat who has been a very strong votegetter in statewide races in Pennsylvania. Like his father, a moderate Democrat, Casey has run well ahead of the normal Democratic performance in central and western Pennsylvania. Santorum, hated by liberals for his vehemently conservative social views, faces a difficult climate in marginally Democratic Pennsylvania, which went for Kerry in 2004 by 2.5%. Santorum is a strong campaigner with a huge campaign Treasury, which makes it difficult to count him out. But he has been unable to make headway in recent polls, which show him down by about 10% on average. Unless Casey makes a serious gaffe in these final weeks, it appears that this seat is heading for a Democratic takeover.
Rating: Leans Democratic.
Rhode Island
It is an anomaly that Rhode Island, which competes with Massachusetts for the title of most Democratic state in the country, has elected a Republican to the Senate for decades. Senator Lincoln Chafee, son of the beloved late Senator John Chafee, is the most liberal Republican in the Senate. Many political observers thought winning a tough primary over conservative challenger Stephen Laffey would give him a boost in his general election campaign against former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse. According to recent polling data, this has not happened, and Whitehouse seems to have pulled away slightly with about a 5% lead. But Chafee’s personal popularity, his moderate-to-liberal views, and a strong get-out-the-vote effort by the Republican National Committee keep this race too close to call.
Rating: No clear favorite.
Tennessee
This race was expected to be relatively easy for former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R), but Democratic Congressman Harold Ford has been running a strong campaign. Tennessee is a fairly solidly Republican state in which Bush defeated Kerry by 14%, although it is less conservative than states in the Deep South. It is somewhat inexplicable why Corker cannot run a better campaign than he has so far, but he recently hired a new campaign manager, and intensive assistance from the national party is sure to come. Furthermore, the South has not elected a black senator in the last 125 years, and it is unclear whether the voters of Tennessee are ready to do so. Recent polls have Ford up by about 1%, but minority candidates have often run slightly worse on election day than they have in pre-election polls
Rating: Leans Republican.
Virginia
The national negative publicity surrounding Senator Allen’s “macaca” remark and allegations of racism seem to have eroded his viability as a potential presidential candidate. But while his margins in the polls have narrowed, he still remains a favorite for reelection to the Senate. James Webb, a Defense Department official during the Reagan administration, is a strong candidate, but Allen’s popularity while Governor and during his single Senate term, compounded by the Republican leanings of Virginia (Bush by 8% over Kerry in 2004), make it an uphill race for him. Recent polls have Allen ahead by an average of about 5%.
Rating: Leans Republican.
According to this analysis, as of early October, Democrats have a clear advantage in two of the races involving Republican-held seats, and are in essentially even races in three others. Therefore, if Democrats can hold all the seats they currently hold (no sure thing, as New Jersey is very lose), they must win all three of these even races, and pull off an upset in one of the two races (both in the South) in which Republicans currently have a slight edge. This a difficult feat, but not one that can be ruled out in the current anti-Republican political climate.
