Space WokIs China heating up a new race?

On January 11, 2007, China, after a few misses, succeeded in blowing up one of their own low flying weather satellites, proving an intent toward scientific development that could one day challenge that of the United States. From March 2007 to 2008, there have been 12 arrests charging Chinese and Chinese-Americans with espionage against the United States; one of the most recent featured an accusation of stealing corporate trade secrets from U.S. aerospace programs and giving them to China. Memories of Qian Xuesen, an American scientist deported to China under accusations of communism and now considered China’s “Father of Rocketry,” and similar events, may fuel American cries of “Space Race!” However, even if Project 921, China’s manned space program, appears to be growing at an unprecedented rate, the United States must avoid a realization of a new space race. The United States is many years and millions of dollars ahead of China in terms of space weaponization (in other words, China isn’t a threat), and any potentially threatening armament system launched by China could not only lead to an international push for banning weapons in space, jeopardizing U.S. strategy, but could also lead to other nations joining in the race and potentially surpassing the United States’ military strength. The United States should focus on backing its current plans for expanded space initiatives and supporting a growing commercial space industry.

Exactly where is China in terms of space development anyway? Are they breathing down our necks? Hardly. Said Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Studies Department at the U.S. Naval War College, in a recent New York Times article: “They’re basically recreating Apollo missions 50 years on.” While the perception of a space race may exist, China, with a $2 billion a year space budget, is far behind the United States, which provides $16 billion per year for NASA general operations alone.

So, if this is the case, you may well wonder why the number of news articles involving “China + space + race” keep mounting up. This March, the National Institute for Defense Studies of Japan published its East Asian Strategic Review for 2008, stating that space development “is likely…[to serve] as a vital means of achieving military competitiveness against the United States…and raising national prestige.” The report, notably coming from a country with empirical grounds for bias against China, also stated that China’s space program had strong ties with the People’s Liberation Army and that a large portion of Chinese satellites are believed to have military purposes. This, coupled with recent accusations of Chinese space and military espionage, as well as memories of the January 11 Chinese satellite shoot-down (followed a year later by a shoot down from the United States of one of its own satellites), perhaps exaggerates the situation to the American public.

The American public should prevent the government from turning a red herring into an actual herring. If we allow the perception of U.S. space armament, we will create a unilateralist, war-mongering image, potentially leading other nations to propose multinational bans on space weaponization, or encourage those nations more scientifically advanced than China to try to catch up and overtake the United States in terms of weaponization. Both of these scenarios can be avoided if the United States refuses to acknowledge the space race distraction, which has the potential to critically damage current American space initiatives.

At a United Nations international disarmament conference in Geneva, in February of this year, China and Russia called for a treaty banning weapons in space. Russia and China, space race enemies throughout the Cold War, are now able to reconcile over a common enemy — the United States — and play off the United States as a seemingly dominating, controlling, nuclear-armed power. Russia criticized the United States for planning to expand their ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) system. The proposition failed because of poor wording, but not before the United States was compelled to voice its complete refusal to comply with any treaty requiring the it to surrender its advantage in space technology. This situation does little for international relations, but instead encourages nations to think of the United States as an instigator. In reality, the United States relies heavily on space-based military systems, and any ban on space weaponization would severely limit American scientific expansion, a situation few could find advantage in.

Since the end of the Cold War, America has flatlined in terms of the percent of GDP spent on NASA programs each year. In fact the first measly increase — 3.4% — was in 2007 (”Boeing’s Albaugh says increased funding critical to maintain US lead in space technologies news”, Domain-B.com, Apr. 9). NASA seeks $17.6 billion for the upcoming budget year, while the Space Foundation estimates that China spends $1.5 billion (”Boeing Urges Major Boost in US Space Funding,” Reuters, Apr. 8). The White House currently lists three goals for space expansion on its out-of-date and rather unhelpful website. First, that America will complete the International Space Station by 2010; second, that a “new manned exploration vehicle” will conduct its first manned mission no later than 2014, with the hope of eventually exploring other planets; and third, that we will return to the moon by 2020 and use knowledge gained by that mission to create more advanced and adventurous missions. The GAO recommended to Congress on March 27, 2008, that a “national security space strategy,” particularly concerning “emerging threats” be issued.

This push from the GAO to comply with increasing media pressure and respond to the destruction of a low-lying weather satellite, will probably come to very little. The United States seems to have a great many goals for offensive, non-aggressive space development, but, like the NASA website, these goals have not been updated or acted upon. It is possible to both avoid a space race and promote space expansion at the same time. The commercialization of space flight and creating a new multi-billion dollar space economy should be taken advantage of by the government. “We can clearly see our international competitors fast approaching in the rear view mirror,” said James Albaugh, chief executive of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems (defense contractor extraordinaire) at the National Space Symposium early this April, and added, “We must. . .take the next big bold step forward.” For a country expected (says the Federal Aviation Administration) to have a $1 billion space tourism industry by 2021, it seems that space exploration and innovation can only be to our economic (and international) advantage.

With American companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin Corp., and Raytheon developing advanced rockets, and raking in tens of billions a year, the United States is clearly in the lead with scientific advancement and funding. However we must not allow our lead to jettison (pun intended) the possibility of advanced exploration for personal economic and scientific development. The United States must ignore the plodding footsteps of China, and instead seize this opportunity to reinstate space development goals already in place, contract out to private companies, inhibit the possibility of “sacrificing our scientific lead” to any other country, and prevent the “space race” from becoming a reality.