The Battle for Control of the United States Senate

With the 2006 Congressional elections just four weeks away, the battle for control of Congress is heating up. With the Foley scandal adding to the unpopularity of the Republican Congress, the prospect of holding Republican losses to a minimum is looking bleaker each day. Most political pundits contend that Democrats have a good chance of gaining the fifteen seats they need to control the House of Representatives, but that gaining control of the US Senate is less likely. The Democrats need to gain a net of six seats for control of the Senate. Of the 33 Senate seats that are up in this election cycle, only nine appear at this time to be close races. This means that Democrats must win eight out of nine, or 89%, of the close races to win control, since two of the nine are currently seats held by the Democrats. While this appeared to be a long shot two months ago, the possibility of a change in Senate control appears greater now, as Democrats are running surprisingly strong campaigns in several Republican-leaning states this year. My analyses of these races are based on the analyses of Congressional Quarterly and the Cook Political Report, as well as my own research on these races.

Maryland
This race should be safe for Democrats, as Kerry beat President Bush in Maryland by 13%. However, a divisive Democratic primary and the possibility of African Americans defecting in large numbers to the Republican nominee puts this seat into play. Congressman Ben Cardin, a white Democrat, narrowly defeated former NAACP President Mfume in the Democratic primary last month and now faces Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele in November. While Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, Steele has a chance to become the only black Republican in the Senate if he can gain a sizeable portion of the large African American vote. With many black Democrats disappointed by Mfume’s primary loss, this seems like a genuine possibility. Current polling has Cardin up by about 10%, but this race could be a surprise on election night.
Rating: Leans Democratic.

Missouri
Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent faces former State Auditor Claire McCaskill. In recent years, Missouri has been kind to Republicans, with President Bush beating Senator Kerry by 7% in 2004. The current political climate, however, makes this race extremely close. Senator Talent is an attractive rising star in the GOP Senate caucus who lost a tough race for Governor in 2000 by 20,000 votes. He then came back and won by 20,000 votes two years later in a special election for the Senate over Jean Carnahan, who had taken her late husband’s Senate seat after he posthumously defeated Senator John Ashcroft in 2000. This race, which polls indicate is statistically even, is a bellwether race for control of the US Senate. This is one race that Democrats must win in order to control the Senate.
Rating: No clear favorite.